SPOTTED
LANTERNFLY

SPECIES & SIGNALS

Spotted lanternfly

OBSERVATION HEATMAPreport density & signal intensity

PUBLIC OCCURRENCESzoom in to inspect individual reports

REPORT-DERIVED CORErepeat-report clusters · not verified occupancy

REPORTING-GAP INTERPOLATIONmodeled continuity · not observed presence

SCHEMATIC CORRIDORSillustrative human-mediated pathways

PROPOSED SITES · DEMOillustrative points · not an agency network

DATA STREAMS

Evidence & signals

Public observationsLoading…GBIF occurrence index

Frozen replay2024–25coefficients fit through 2023, then reused unchanged

Evaluation targetFIRST REPORTprior-year unreported 0.2° U.S. land cells

External field validationNOT YETpost-hoc temporal replay, not preregistered occupancy validation

Occurrence points are real public records. Observation density reflects reporting effort as well as biological presence and should not be read as abundance.

HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN SEARCH

Prototype prompts

Review missed frontier cellscompare 2024 and 2025 frozen evaluation maps

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Stress-test corridor hypothesescompare Transport RD with simpler alternatives

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Plan independent samplingrecord effort and non-detections for prospective validation

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Illustrative research prompts only. They are not quarantine, treatment, inspection, or agency recommendations.

GRID CELL SIZE0.25°

0.25°finer0.5°0.75°1°coarser

INVASION MECHANISMLANTERNTRACE

EVALUATION + PHYSICS

Model evidence lab

PRE-2024 COEFFICIENT FREEZEFIRST-REPORT REPLAY2024–2025 · annual state updates · no target-year refitting

relative ranktop 5%first reports

Read the methods paper ↗

AP and R@5% evaluate first reports among previously unreported cells. Scores are relative rankings, not occupancy probabilities. This replay is post-hoc and not independent field validation.

REACTION–DIFFUSION SYSTEMMONTHLY SOLVER · 0.2° GRID

∂u/∂t = ∇·(D∇u) − v·∇u + ru(1−u) + J + εθD local spread r growth J transport jumps εθ learned correction

20 DISPLAY VARIANTSASSIMILATING SCENARIOSMonthly reports anchor every historical step · not forecast validation

Playback420 backcast + 300 scenario frames

Field validationNot demonstrated

Legacy composite scores retain cumulative known-cell credit and threshold search. They are shown only to explore monthly model behavior and must not be interpreted as frozen validation or calibrated confidence.

No lanternflies here (yet)

NASA LRO surface

ESTIMATED ANNUAL U.S. CROP LOSS $203.8M–$608.8M / year

201920262056

The lower and upper curves apply commodity-specific annual loss rates from Harper et al. 2019 to a USDA NIFA vulnerable-crop mix, then scale the exposed value with LanternTrace spread. This is a transparent scenario estimate, not a calibrated economic forecast. USDA NIFA commodity-value source. Harper et al. crop-loss rates.

CURRENT VIEWNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

⌕Search built-in places

✦LANTERNTRACE
PROTECTING
THE FRONT

MAP DISPLAY

Model settings

Forecast scenariosExtend the evidence timeline through 2030 Compare scenario contoursOnly for assimilating display playback Lower-threshold sensitivity envelopeScenario contour at 0.4 × the display threshold; not confidence

Forecast scenarios are disabled on launch. They are hypothesis visualizations, not calibrated occupancy or an operational boundary.

MODEL-DERIVED PHYSICS FIELDECO-RD · OURS

lower pressurehigher pressuregrowth front↗local gradient

Animated threshold sweep over the frozen relative-pressure surface.

Diagnostic visualization of model score fields—not abundance, calibrated velocity, or a literal time forecast.

Loading mapPreparing scientific layers…

FRONT ESTIMATE 2025 · LATEST EVIDENCE WINDOW

New England watch zone

—reported 0.45° cells

NOT CALIBRATEDrelative scenario only

—public records to date

FRONT STATUSMODELLED · NEEDS FIELD CONFIRMATION

OBSERVED EVIDENCE · 84 MONTHLY STEPS

Front progression

Models assimilate dated reports at every historical step; forecasts are Settings-only

2025 Decevidence step

OBSERVED EVIDENCE 2019–2025

YEAR2026

PRESENT · PARTIAL OBSERVATIONS

OBSERVED30-YEAR PHYSICS SIMULATION

20192026present2036+10 yr2046+20 yr2056+30 yr